Recently "Cambodia" has become a focus worldwide. Many people in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and other Asia-Pacific regions have been defrauded by criminals to work in Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and other places. There are thousands of cases of being blackmailed and tortured to death, etc. At this scale, in addition to involving underworld forces, there must be protection from local police and governments, etc. It is not uncommon for it to appear in areas with backward economic conditions, but the scale is much larger than expected, and even Americans are also affected! The reason is that the world economic cycle has been distorted by the epidemic, coupled with the epidemic prevention restrictions and illegal activities have increased. These attract more people to engage in higher-risk industries.  

Although the vaccine has long been available, there is still a long way to go to reduce the impact of the epidemic. At present, vaccines not only cannot prevent infection completely but can’t deal with the root causes. In the United States, about 10% to 30% of Covid-19 patients have "Post-Covid-19 syndrome" such as brain fog, tachypnea, dizziness, and symptoms such as loss of smell or taste for more than two months. A study in Hong Kong recorded more than 70% of patients with the above symptoms! The total economic cost of Covid-19 in the United States, in terms of reduced quality of life, reduced income and increased medical spending, is close to $3.7 trillion. This shows that the impact of Covid-19 is enough to change the times. Although the Dow recovered to 34,281.16 in August, it was still far away from the all-time high of 36,952.65. The S&P rebounded and fell back to 4,140.77 at the time of writing. On the monthly chart, the two have seen continued falling, and the downside risk is faintly appearing. If a sudden upward in inflation forces the central bank to tighten policy at a faster pace, the contraction in equity valuations will be even more pronounced. The Dow's June low of 29,654.59 will be very important. If it is confirmed to fall, it is very likely to indicate that the 14-year upward cycle of US stocks has officially come to an end.  

Compared with the United States, the mainland would rather endure the economic pressure and maintain a strict epidemic prevention policy. The number of confirmed cases has continued to increase in Hong Kong recently. It is predicted that customs clearance between China and Hong Kong is still far away. I had to sigh that "health is priceless", but the pain of tightening finance is not easy to bear. The mainland's GDP growth rate in the second quarter was only 0.4%. The record high temperature has caused "power shortages" in mainland cities. In addition to the implementation of electricity rationing for residents, factories have stopped production, which has further affected the supply chain. Therefore, stabilizing the economy has become an important goal of the mainland government. The State Council announced the implementation of 19 additional policies for "stabilizing the economy", including the quota of policy-based development financial instruments, the use of special bond balances, and the issuance of 200 billion dollars of special bonds for energy supply guarantees, etc. It has a certain positive impact on the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets. At the time of writing, the Hang Seng Index rose to the edge of 20,000 points and reported 19,968.38. The H-Share Index also fell first and then rebounded during the month, writing at 6,848.89, which was similar to the close at the end of July. In the short-term trend, the Hong Kong stock market seems to show signs of improvement. However, with the rapid weakening of the RMB, coupled with the inflation problem caused by the price of high energy, the pressures for cost have gradually emerged. Therefore, it is almost impossible for the market situation to improve in an all-round way. 

It is circulated within Huawei that the founder Ren Zhengfei advocates that "survival must be the most important program in 2023 or even 2025". As a small investor, it is also best to maintain a "survive" strategy. It is suggested to avoid excessive leverage and choose stocks with caution.  

The share price of Hong Kong Ferry (0050), which was introduced last month performed well. The company's interim net profit of HK$65.07 million decreased by 4.36% compared with last year. Net profit per share was HK$0.18 and a dividend of 10 cents was paid. Excluding changes in the fair value of investment properties, underlying profit attributable to shareholders increased by 64% from last year to HK$54 million. The rental income of its properties increased by 5% year-on-year. After obtaining the satisfactory result for "The Royale" project, the property sales bring huge income to the company. The company's medical beauty clinic in Tsim Sha Tsui has officially opened, and it is preparing to cooperate with the International Oncology Care Medical Group to provide oncology treatment services at H Centre in Tsim Sha Tsui. By cooperating with other medical groups including Union Hospital, it will further transform to seize the market share of the healthcare industry. Since the company owns the network of Henderson Land Development, Hong Kong Ferry's market outlook is quite optimistic, and it is recommended to continue to hold.  

This month, I recommend an alternative "Apple concept stock" Kerry Logistics (0636). Since the company was owned by SF Holding, it has obtained the general agent right of SF Airlines to develop the Kerry Cargo Control Network (KCN). It starts to carry out air freight services from the Asia-Pacific region to the United States, with the ability to handle lithium batteries, sensitive goods such as medicines, fresh goods and dangerous goods. Four more flights a week from Hong Kong to Huntsville have been added since last month. Obviously, it is to meet the shipping needs of the iPhone 14 and other products that go on sale this month. After Kerry Logistics acquired Topocean earlier this year, together with its subsidiary APEX Shipping, the total ranking of freight forwarders on China-US routes jumped to No. 1. This is directly benefiting from rising supply chain costs. The current price is still lower than the cash price of 18.8 dollars when SF Express entered the market. The core price-earnings ratio is 4.72 times, and the relative valuation is not expensive. In the month, you can first look at around 19 dollars. You can stop the loss if it falls below this year's low of 15.06 dollars.

Kay Ho (CE No.: ANV293)

Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited

Statement: The author is a licensee of the 1st, 4th, and 9th types of licenses of Securities and Futures Commission, SFC. Acer King securities Limited and Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited are affiliated companies of Hantec Group and were invited to contribute articles in Hantec Group's monthly newsletter. The writing does not represent the position of Hantec Group. As the author does not personally hold the above-mentioned shares, investors should exercise caution when buying or selling relevant securities and investment instruments.