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<About Stock Markets>“I am stressed, you are stressed. Why’d you provoke me?“
For the above title, I believe readers who are a bit "aged" know that it was the famous saying of "Uncle Bus" in previous years. The short film was reported by many foreign media and became the most popular short film on Youtube in the world in May of 17 years ago. Regarding the pressure, the inflation problem continues to affect the world, making the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and even the Federal Reserve continue to face pressure to raise interest rates. Even Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who has kept monetary policy ultra-loose, signaled an opportunity to tighten fiscal policy due to inflation concerns. In the past, I have repeatedly stated the impact of interest rate hikes on market. Following the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, the crisis of First Republic Bank (FRC.US) occurred recently. The company announced that its first-quarter deposits plummeted by more than 100 billion U.S. dollars, and is exploring plans to restructure its balance sheet, including Salary cuts and layoffs of 25% of employees, etc. The company's stock price has fallen by more than 86% during the year, but it has fallen further by 22% after the news was announced. The current price is only "50% off" at the end of last year. You must know that the company's first-quarter net profit reached US$1.23 per share, higher than market expectations. U.S. Bank was also downgraded by Moody's on the basis that its profit and revenue exceeded expectations. It can be seen that the "money shortage" problem has caused serious pressure on regional banks in the United States. As stated last month, "the market's trust in the financial market has been significantly affected" and "the cost of financing in the future will rise further, which will be detrimental to the economy." Therefore, although the U.S. stock market rebounded last month, the trend is still blocked. The economic pressure has gradually shifted to all industries. The U.S. technology and financial industries continue to lay off workers. The manufacturing industry may have the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of the former two in the near future. "Sell in May" may be too late.
On the other hand, the recent deteriorating situation in the Taiwan has caused all Southeast Asian countries to close down, which has a greater impact than the Ukraine issue. For the first time, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yue abandoned the strategic ambiguity between the United States and China and directly turned to the United States. Even the Philippines and Indonesia have begun to study the evacuation plan. The former renewed its approval to allow the United States to use its four military bases. Although Taiwan's "alliances" are decreasing, the importance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry to the world is increasing. Otherwise, there would not be so many countries "expressing concern." All in all, we know that "weak countries do not have diplomacy". Although countries respect "one China", they have their own plans behind the scenes. Therefore, when all parties "provoke each other", there is also a chance to misfire. Singapore, which is known for its neutrality, has recorded very significant capital inflows, obviously many of which belong to the assets of both China and the United States. Similarly, the trend of gold prices is still stable, which is the market's reaction to the current atmosphere. Singapore, which is known for its neutrality, has recorded very significant capital inflows, obviously many of which belong to the assets of both China and the United States. Similarly, the trend of gold prices is still stable, which is the reaction of the market to the current atmosphere. Likewise, the price of gold remains firm that is also the market reaction to current mood.
I recommend Bank of East Asia (0023) this month. The net profit of East Asia last year was 4.359 billion dollars, which fell by 17.29% from the previous year, mainly due to the increase in impairment losses recorded. In fact, the company's net interest margin expanded by 28 basis points to 1.65%, driving up net interest income and total operating income. Therefore, the annual distribution increased to 0.81 dollars per share, and the interest rate was nearly 8% at the current price, far higher than the bank's annual fixed deposit interest rate which is only 3.5%. Of course, this item alone is not necessarily worth taking additional risks. However, the company’s current net asset value is still over HK$106 billion, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.26 times. This year, the chances of large impairment losses are reduced due to the decline in the proportion of domestic real estate loans. The company has also started to repurchase intensively recently. It has repurchased more than 20.67 million shares since the beginning of the year, and it is expected to continue in the short term. Therefore, the relatively strong carrying capacity of low prices is the main reason why the stock price outperformed the market this month. For the time being, the stock price is subject to the 50-day moving average of about 10.33 dollars. After the breakthrough, it is expected to challenge this year's high of 11.46 dollars. It is only necessary to confirm the loss of 9.5 dollars and stop the loss.
As for the Luk Fook Group (0590) that was promoted last month, it was driven by the price of gold and risen to 27.25 dollars at the beginning of the month. However, it was limited by the market conditions and "returned to the basic step". However, considering the fundamentals of the company, there is not much room for a big drop, and the price of gold continues to be strong. Thus, it is still recommended that those who have already bought continue to hold it.
Kay Ho (CE No.: ANV293)
Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited
Statement: The author is a licensee of the 1st, 4th, and 9th types of licenses of Securities and Futures Commission, SFC. Acer King securities Limited and Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited were invited to contribute articles in Hantec Group's monthly newsletter as an independent third party. The writing does not represent the position of Hantec Group. As the author does not personally hold the above-mentioned shares, investors should exercise caution when buying or selling relevant securities and investment instruments.
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